Moon Math & Rainbow Charts
Moon Math: Equations and statistics that project many possible future Bitcoin prices
/u/azop’s Rainbow Charts: An exponential projection of bitcoin’s price on a log chart: https://azopstability.com/
Trolololo’s Log Projection Calculation
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—The Bitcoin standard: the decentralized alternative to central banking Saifedean Ammous - John Wiley & Sons, Inc. - 2018
From the foreword by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Why is there a new chart that looks insane?
Compounding daily periodic rate (CDPR) has a big impact on the price projection reported by the rainbow charts. The new chart is a replica of the chart Azop made in 2015 that shows us far underneath the rainbow. It uses his same CDPR of 0.443% and has the same range. Visually compare and let me know if it doesn't look exactly right. The rainbow in this chart will never change because the CDPR is fixed.
Moon Math's rainbow charts are dynamic. They determine CDPR using observed performance (2012/1/1 or 2017/1/1). Azop set his charts statically and changed them when the numbers didn't fit observed performance. It is impossible for the dynamic charts to ever show the price under the rainbow. If the price goes negative the rainbow will point down. Similary, Azop would have, and did, adjust his CDPR down to reflect Bitcoin's changing performance.
If you're still confused about how to read the rainbow charts, try to remember that a small change in the CDPR has a big impact on the long-term projection that the rainbow shows. CDPR is reported in the top left corner of the dynamic charts. Azop bosted his CDPR above each graph.
Hopefully this helps clarify to some why there are projections using both exponential and logarithmic formulas. The Moon Math log projection formula is not dynamic.