Moon Math is for fun and not meant to be a realistic price projector in any sense of the word. Investing in bitcoin is like any other investment—don't invest more than you can afford to lose. I will not entertain comments from whiners who used Moon Math to figure out when they will be a millionaire. Some people buy bitcoin and lose money./u/Eth_Man
Please, don’t use this site as a tool for speculation.
The Rainbow Chart uses bands that are arbitrarily thick. There is a plan to create an algorithm that sets the height of the bands, but it will have no more meaning with an algorithm than without one. You can see that the bands that are drawn are not using perfectly straight lines and that sometimes those lines overlap or have a gap between them. This should illustrate to you the arbitrary nature of those bands.
Further, the angle of the Rainbow Charts is not fixed. From day to day the angle of the bands will adjust based on the performance of the period they describe.
The Rainbow Charts are generated using the Compound Daily Periodic Rate (CDPR) that are shown at the top left of the chart and again in the Moon Math table below. A CDPR is like a Daily Periodic Rate (DPR), except it considers compounding when it’s derived. CDPR looks at the price change over time and creates an interest calculation that predicts today’s price from the starting price for the given period. The two default Rainbow Charts are calculated based on the 2012 CDPR and the 2017 CDPR. The table below the Rainbow Chart shows more CDPRs based on different time periods. It also shows doubling rates and projects when the price might reach a given price based on the CDPR for the period that’s set in the given column.
Eventually you’ll have the ability to select the charts you want to view from the Moon Math table below the Rainbow Charts. You’ll also have the ability to travel back in time to see how these data present from different days in Bitcoin’s history.
I’m not a zealot. It’s bizarre to me that this has had any predictive power. It has been accurate, but it has not been correct, if that makes sense.
“Time travel” is a feature I’ve planned for. I’m still working out a few details of how I want that to work. I’d like the have good multi-chart comparison features too. Ideally, I think you should be able to go back and see how these charts/graphs render on any day in history, and be able to compare tables from different dates.Even if time travel shows that these charts have had predictive power for Bitcoin it’s impossible to use them to predict what period of time they might be valuable for that purpose.
You can review my reddit submission history. Here’s the oldest version of the chart that I can link to easily:
Obviously, the 2017 column was making insane predictions based on the date that it was published. I took a lot of flak when I posted these early last year. Would it surprise you to know that the model I used for calculations back then is completely different than the one I use today? It shouldn’t. I’ve tried to make it harder to show one million USD/BTC by the end of 2020, not easier.
/u/Nannal 2020 is the percent of observed trends that show one Bitcoin equal to on million USD by the end of 2020.
/u/nannal is a buddy of ours on reddit. Call him Captain Nannal and see if you can get a spot to crew the moonship Nannal.
/u/nannal is whom we now might consider an early adopter. He’s broke AF, but bought 1 BTC early enough that it didn’t break his bank. The central premise of Moon Math is to show /u/nannal the various trends that imply that his 1 BTC will make him a millionaire by the end of 2020.
This row shows the date that causes the 2014 column to report one million USD by the end of 2020. 2014 was chosen because it is the worst performing trend on the Moon Math Table. If the trend shows that it is not possible based on the observed trend, then the cell will report “NEVER!!!”
"The Nannaling" is the day when all observed trends show us hitting one million USD by the end of 2020. It is derived from the “/u/nannal A+” row in the Moon Math Table. Confused yet?
The official stance of Moon Math is that BTC will not hit one million USD/BTC until a moderate period of time after the next Bitcoin halving event; sometime near the end of 2022, or possibly later. We base that on a projected multi-year 0.3% CDPR that is consistent with the original observation by /u/azop. It is a more conservative projection than all but one observation on the Moon Math table at the time this was written.