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Vol 1 : Initial proposal to start a DCA
by jarederaj
Posted on September 17, 2018 at 19:12 GMT
Your Daily Moon Math
(It's just too big for the daily)
The noob looking for an entrance with 10k update
Edit: Added in links, since this is written for new investors
This is not a buy recommendation . This is to prepare you for the buy recommendation.
We've resumed growth, but the US dollar is also continuing to underperform as compared to other currencies. If BTC price growth slows, as I think it will, then our first two price targets have a good chance of merging this month. Overall, it looks like now is as good a time as any to bet on BTC with USD , as there's a little hedge that's built into the bet by way of a sluggish and war fearing US economy.
Conventional wisdom says to DCA into Bitcoin. I'm all for that. When I did that it took me years to acquire my full position . However, what if you're looking to put a large chunk of your savings into BTC because you heard that an ETF is coming, or whatever? You want to get 10K USD in before "that" happens. What's today's DCA strategy to make safely make that buy?
Principles:
- Wait for a formation to be confirmed , or know the formation you're betting on in advance.
- You're talking about buying near the ATH . That's FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out). You cannot acquire a position after the fact. If it's a decade long investment then DCA in and walk away. Don't try to prove it was a good/bad investment for at least 5 years.
- If you're looking to day trade , stop reading.
- If you don't plan to leave your money alone for 10 years, stop reading.
- Strap in.
I think we're headed back down ( breakdown ), possibly to 4000 over the next week or two. If we breakdown from 4700, I think we'll end up there in a few days to a week. If we break up ( breakout ), what appears to be little or no resistance there, then this strategy breaks and you've missed your opportunity to buy, literally, right now. This isn't a "buy right now" or even a "buy today" strategy.
A possible A&E double bottom formation may confirm one way or the other in the next two weeks. The price must drop before it breaks 4,700 USD. The price must continue to bleed down to somewhere between 4,000 and 4,250. If the price drops bellow 4k then I don't know where the bottom is. The plan breaks at that point and you'll have to find some other strategy to enter the market.
Start buying .01 btc every hour if we bounce somewhere in our range of 4k - 4.25k. If the A&E double bottom confirms you could bump that up. If it doesn't, dial it back until we reach solid support and evaluate. The plan has been broken at this point. If the market has turned you shouldn't be in so deep that this breaks your 10-year plan, but it certainly breaks your buying strategy. Seriously consider investing the rest of that money somewhere else for a while. You are not selling, because you have already made a 10-year commitment with that cash.
If your plan doesn't trigger, live with it. You're already late to this party.
How much do you believe in BTC as an eventual global financial backbone?
I'm all in already.
If this is too complicated then buy a reasonable amount of BTC every week so that it fits your budget and keep that 10k chunk as an emergency fund so you don't ever have to sell your BTC.
We have a price target of 33,333 CNY (5,128 USD). A conservative price projection based on daily periodic rates established against the 2015 column says we're expected to hit that on or after 2017-09-28.
Good hunting.
| Label | 30-day Performance | 60-day Performance | 90-day Performance | 2017 - Present Performance | 2016 - Present Performance | 2015 - Present Performance | 2014 - Present Performance | 2013 - Present Performance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| From Date | 2017-08-07 | 2017-07-08 | 2017-06-08 | 2017-01-01 | 2016-01-01 | 2015-01-01 | 2014-01-01 | 2013-01-01 |
| Starting Price USD | $3,407.23 | $2,562.13 | $2,793.00 | $997.73 | $432.00 | $312.00 | $804.00 | $12.50 |
| Doubling in months | 1.96 | 1.75 | 3.22 | 1.61 | 2.79 | 4.98 | 14.18 | 3.41 |
| Doubling Period in Days | 59.61 | 53.22 | 97.89 | 49.09 | 84.97 | 151.61 | 431.32 | 103.63 |
| Days in period | 30.00 | 60.00 | 90.00 | 249.00 | 615.00 | 980.00 | 1345.00 | 1710.00 |
| Daily Periodic Rate | 1.21% | 1.35% | 0.74% | 1.47% | 0.85% | 0.47% | 0.17% | 0.69% |
| Period Percent Growth | 36.23% | 81.17% | 66.19% | 365.24% | 974.50% | 1387.76% | 477.34% | 37034.58% |
| Annual Rate of Investment | 309.3% | 173.3% | 60.9% | 253.6% | ||||
| Over $5,128.00 on | 2017-09-15 | 2017-09-14 | 2017-09-20 | 2017-09-13 | 2017-09-18 | 2017-09-28 | 2017-11-05 | 2017-09-21 |
| Over $5,500.00 on | 2017-09-21 | 2017-09-19 | 2017-09-30 | 2017-09-18 | 2017-09-27 | 2017-10-12 | 2017-12-17 | 2017-10-01 |
| Over $6,000.00 on | 2017-09-28 | 2017-09-26 | 2017-10-12 | 2017-09-24 | 2017-10-07 | 2017-10-31 | 2018-02-07 | 2017-10-14 |
| Over $10,000.00 on | 2017-11-09 | 2017-11-03 | 2017-12-20 | 2017-10-29 | 2017-12-06 | 2018-02-15 | 2018-12-11 | 2017-12-26 |
| Over $50,000.00 on | 2018-03-23 | 2018-03-02 | 2018-07-28 | 2018-02-17 | 2018-06-15 | 2019-01-21 | 2021-08-02 | 2018-08-16 |
| Over $100,000.00 on | 2018-05-20 | 2018-04-23 | 2018-10-30 | 2018-04-05 | 2018-09-05 | 2019-06-16 | 2022-09-21 | 2018-11-24 |
| Over $1,000,000.00 on | 2018-11-28 | 2018-10-11 | 2019-09-10 | 2018-09-10 | 2019-06-05 | 2020-10-14 | 2026-07-03 | 2019-10-22 |
| /u/nannal 's A+ on | 2018-06-03 | 2018-05-04 | 2018-12-14 | 2018-04-15 | 2018-10-07 | 2019-11-11 | NEVER!!!! | 2019-01-14 |
| The Nannaling | 87.5% | What | the shit | is this? | ||||
| /u/nannal 2020 | 87.5% | Read about it |